New wave of food price hikes set to hit consumers in coming weeks

# What is happening The first price lists that raise prices for essential items — notably dairy and bakery products — have already reached authorities. Officials expect those increases to appear on supermarket shelves within about a month. This development follows a period when some fixed-price controls were in effect, and it signals renewed upward pressure on food costs.

# Main drivers of the increase Rising global oil prices are central. Higher oil pushes energy and transport costs up, and it also makes plastic and paper packaging more expensive. At the same time, turmoil in fertilizer and grain markets is putting direct stress on farmers, livestock producers and food processors.

Commercial actors link these supply-side shocks to geopolitical tensions. Businesses warn of an even bigger wave of increases toward late 2026 and early 2027 because of additional cost burdens tied to the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

# A concrete example: Kri Kri Kri Kri, a dairy company based in Serres, provided a concrete estimate of the extra cost pressure. Its financial director said that the additional production-cost burden attributable to the war in Iran had originally been estimated at €5.5 million for the year. Under updated conditions, that burden is now estimated to be €2–3 million higher than previously thought.

# How much prices have already risen Food prices are already substantially higher than before: they are 36.35% above 2020 levels. The incoming increases will add to an already expensive consumer basket.

# Government response and rules in place Ministry has signaled measures on fuel that it plans to announce shortly. Separately, the ministry extended several regulatory measures designed to improve market transparency and limit opportunistic pricing:

• Supermarkets must continue to publish prices for fruit and vegetables.

Officials also noted that a recent agreement that had pressured some price reductions is likely to lose strength after October. Retailers are considering coding or prioritizing high-demand items for the upcoming holiday season, which could affect availability and pricing.

# What this means for consumers Expect more visible price changes in basic food categories in the weeks ahead, particularly dairy and baked goods. Further rounds of increases remain a credible risk toward the end of 2026 and early 2027, depending on global energy prices and how conflicts affect commodity flows. The government has extended transparency and notification rules, but those measures do not directly lower input costs.

# Practical steps for households Shop with price lists in hand where possible, compare supermarket fruit and vegetable prices (these must be published), and monitor announcements about fuel measures that may affect transport costs. For people budgeting tightly, prioritize staples and track promotions carefully given the temporary ban on offers after price rises.