Mobility Global: Affordability to Keep U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Below Pre‑Pandemic Levels Through 2030

# Summary Mobility Global's latest forecast and a related media briefing in Detroit project U.S. light-vehicle sales will remain below the roughly 17 million annual level seen before the pandemic. The firm expects about 16.1 million units in 2026 and modest growth to 16.4 million by 2030. Analysts attribute the gap largely to affordability constraints facing consumers rather than ongoing supply shortages.

# Why affordability matters Affordability is the single biggest challenge in Mobility Global's outlook. Analysts said buyers are being priced out of replacing or upgrading vehicles at the rates seen in the mid‑2010s. That constraint, according to associate director Peter Nagle, keeps volumes below the 17‑million thresholds routinely hit in earlier years. The briefing places affordability ahead of other headwinds such as geopolitical instability, economic uncertainty and changing trade policies.

# Powertrain mix and production forecasts

# Industry structure: regionalization and costs Mobility Global framed a broader strategic shift: the auto industry is moving toward three regional markets—North America, Europe and Asia—where automakers largely build for local demand. Joe Langley, director of research and analysis, said the move toward regionalization or 'three major regional islands' reflects trade shifts and rising costs. Automakers face the challenge of localizing production and design while managing higher input and manufacturing costs.

# What this means for stakeholders

• Automakers: Product planning must balance electrification commitments with affordability and supplier capacity for BEV programs.
• Suppliers: Caution around new BEV programs could reduce investment appetite unless clearer, sustained demand appears.
• Dealers and consumers: Lower aggregate volume expectations imply a slower market for used and new-vehicle turnover, with price sensitivity remaining high.
• Policymakers and regional planners: Shifts in trade policy and regulation are directly shaping where vehicles are built and what powertrains get prioritized.

# Bottom line Mobility Global's outlook ties weaker-than-historical U.S. vehicle volumes primarily to consumer affordability. Even as BEV and hybrid production rises, gas-electric powertrains will stay important, and automakers will increasingly align manufacturing and design to regional markets amid rising costs.