A new Vermont Public poll puts incumbent Phil Scott ahead 42% to 32% over Democrat Amanda Janoo, a notable reversal from a University of New Hampshire survey earlier in the week that showed Janoo narrowly leading.
Vermont Public finds Scott ahead 42% to 32% among all adults and 44% to 34% among likely voters.
The Vermont Public results differ sharply from a UNH poll last week that showed Janoo leading 49% to 43%, a 16-point swing between surveys.
Poll also shows Molly Gray leading the lieutenant governor race and Rep. Becca Balint ahead in the congressional contest.
# What the new poll says Vermont Public's 2026 poll released Monday shows Republican Gov. Phil Scott holding a 10-point lead over Democrat Amanda Janoo, 42% to 32% among all respondents. Among likely voters — those who said they would "definitely" or "probably" vote — the gap remains 10 points, with Scott at 44% and Janoo at 34%. Sixteen percent of likely voters are still unsure or have no opinion.
# How this compares to the UNH poll Poll released last week that reported Janoo ahead, 49% to 43%. That earlier survey was declared a statistical tie based on margin of error. The difference between the two polls represents a 16-point swing in the headline numbers.
Journalist Chris Graff called the UNH survey an outlier and said the Vermont Public numbers are more consistent with what longtime state watchers see: Scott maintaining a lead. Graff noted Janoo has a dedicated base but remains relatively unknown to a broader set of voters, and that debates and outreach could affect undecided voters.
# Approval ratings and trends
# Other races in the poll Vermont Public also reported results in other statewide contests. Former Democratic Lt. Gov. Molly Gray was leading Republican John Rodgers by eight points in the lieutenant governor race. In Vermont's single congressional district, U.S. Rep. Becca Balint, D-Vt., led Republican Gerald Malloy, 43% to 28%.
# Campaign reactions Scott's campaign spokesperson Emma Shouldice issued a statement saying public polling has undervalued the governor's support and called the Vermont Public poll "much better" than the UNH survey while still discounting Scott. The campaign framed its message around affordability and electing legislators who will work with the governor on property taxes, housing, healthcare, and energy costs.
Janoo, an economist and political newcomer who rose through a grassroots campaign, responded in a press release expressing optimism. She described the race as likely to be close and emphasized her campaign's work to bring people together around a vision for Vermont's future.
# What to watch next With 16% of likely voters undecided in the Vermont Public poll and two differing polls released within a week, the trajectory of the race could change with further campaigning, debate appearances, and targeted voter outreach. Observers cited debates and organizational capacity as factors that could influence the large pool of undecided or unfamiliar voters.
# Bottom line
A new poll from Vermont Public has Governor Phil Scott leading economist Amanda Janoo, in contrast to a poll last week that had Janoo ahead within the margin of error.
<img width="1024" height="682" src="https://vtdigger.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Janoo-Scott-side-by-side-1024x682.jpg" class="attachment-rss-image-size size-rss-image-size wp-post-image" alt="Two people are shown: a woman speaking at a podium on the left with a “Vermont Democrats” sign, and a man in a suit and plai
A new UNH poll shows Democrat Amanda Janoo is gaining on incumbent Governor Phil Scott for Vermont's top office. We break down the numbers showing a 7-point lead.
A new University of New Hampshire poll in Vermont finds Amanda Janoo (D) leading Phil Scott (R) in the governor’s race, 49% to 43%, with Brian Judd at 2%. Vermont Governor’s Race Amanda Janoo (D) 49% Phil Scott (R) 43% University of New Hampshire poll · likely voters
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