Four betting and analytics models offer mixed views: two predict Ottawa will make the playoffs, two project them just short, while most see modest progress toward contender status.
MoneyPuck gives Ottawa a 62.4% chance to make the playoffs and a 4.1% shot at the Stanley Cup, third-best in the Atlantic behind Tampa Bay and Florida.
HockeyStats’ simulation projects 94 points and a one-point miss on the final Eastern Conference wild-card spot, assigning a 43% playoff probability and 1% Cup odds.
Loss of Brady Tkachuk is noted but Ottawa still ranked eighth in goals for last season, suggesting offense may remain sufficient despite missing a high-profile forward.
# What oddsmakers say on the eve of the season
As the Ottawa Senators prepare to open the 2026-27 NHL season, four sportsbooks and analytics sites provide different portraits of the club's immediate prospects. Two models put the Sens into the post-season, two leave them on the outside looking in. The consensus, however, is cautious optimism: a modest step forward rather than a sudden leap to contender status.
MoneyPuck places Ottawa third in Atlantic Division playoff odds at 62.4%, behind Tampa Bay and Florida. The site gives the Senators a 4.1% chance to win the Stanley Cup, the ninth-highest percentage in the league. For context, MoneyPuck's 2025-26 projection showed slightly higher playoff odds (66.9%) and a 3.6% Cup chance.
HockeyStats offers a slightly gloomier scenario. Its simulation model projects Ottawa at 94 points, which would leave them one point behind the New York Rangers for the final Eastern Conference wild-card. That model assigns the Senators a 43% probability of making the playoffs and a 1% chance to win the Cup. HockeyStats also shifts which divisions supply wild-card teams compared with last season, forecasting more Metropolitan Division representation this year.
DraftKings prices Ottawa as a slight underdog to make the playoffs at +105 — the ninth-best odds in the East — and lists them at +1000 to win the Atlantic Division. DraftKings' Cup line for Ottawa is +3500, tied with Toronto and San Jose.
FanDuel is marginally more optimistic than DraftKings on the Senators' playoff chances, putting Ottawa at -106 to reach the post-season and giving them a +3000 Cup line, tied with Buffalo.
One concrete roster factor mentioned across coverage is the departure of Brady Tkachuk. Critics will point to that loss and the team's lack of a clear superstar up front, though the Senators finished last season eighth in goals for. That suggests Ottawa's scoring depth could carry them through another competitive campaign even without a marquee goal-scorer.
Expect the Senators to be on the bubble. Projections clustered around the low-to-mid 90s in points indicate Ottawa should be competitive in many games, but small swings in health, special teams, and goaltending could decide whether they clear the playoff threshold.
These early indicators will determine whether Ottawa follows the more optimistic MoneyPuck/FanDuel scenarios or ends up closer to HockeyStats' projection.
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