Norway’s ventilation and heat-pump market shows signs of recovery in 2026

# Situation overview After two challenging years for ventilation, cooling and heat‑pump suppliers, Norway's market appears to have bottomed out. VKE, Norway's association for ventilation, cooling and energy, released a report for the second half of 2026 projecting 8.6% market growth for 2026. That projection relies on refurbishment activity in existing commercial buildings and several large hospital projects in Oslo.

# What pushed the market down and what still restrains recovery The climate industry in Norway suffered sharp declines in 2023 and 2024, with recovery stalling in construction. By 2025 the market levelled at NOK 13.6bn (€1.25bn). VKE identifies three headwinds that continue to dampen recovery in construction activity:

• Higher energy prices following the Strait of Hormuz conflict, which raise operating and capital costs.
• Persistent price pressure within the supply chain and market.
• A key interest rate that rose to 4.5%, increasing financing costs for projects.

Construction activity remains well below 2022 levels despite the forecasted market growth in climate equipment and services.

# Where growth is concentrated The report highlights two concrete growth areas:

Refurbishment of existing commercial buildings

• Climate work in existing commercial buildings accounts for 41% of the total climate market.
• This sector is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2026, 4.2% in 2027 and 3.4% in 2028.

• Upcoming regulatory tightening around lifecycle greenhouse‑gas accounting and stricter building requirements are expected to favour upgrades over demolition in the longer term.

• The 2026 growth projection is mainly driven by large hospital projects in Oslo. These public works create concentrated demand for ventilation, cooling and heat‑pump systems.

# Data centres: upside with practical limits VKE flags data centres as a significant upside for the climate industry. However, the report stresses that development pace is constrained in many regions by limited access to power and network capacity. Where sufficient power is available, data‑centre projects can materially increase demand for cooling infrastructure.

# Short to medium-term outlook

# Implications for suppliers and property owners

# Bottom line VKE's mid‑2026 assessment points to a cautious recovery: the climate industry is bouncing back primarily through refurbishment and selected large projects, while broader construction activity remains subdued by energy prices, price pressure and higher interest rates. Data centres offer upside where power and network access permit growth.