IMF forecasts show Asian emerging markets leading growth in 2026 while many large European economies remain sluggish. This brief summarizes the rankings, drivers, and implications for global output.
India leads G20 real GDP growth forecasts in 2026 at 6.4%, followed by Indonesia (5.0%) and China (4.6%).
The global economy is forecast to expand 3.0% in 2026, but growth across major economies varies widely.
Europe's largest economies are projected to grow below 1% in 2026, placing many near the bottom of the G20 ranking.
# Overview
# Top of the ranking: India, Indonesia, China
# Middle of the pack Other notable forecasts in the mid-range include Argentina (3.5%), Türkiye (2.9%), South Korea (2.6%), and Brazil (2.4%). The United States appears ahead of most developed peers at 2.3%. Australia is forecast at 1.9%, and Saudi Arabia at 1.7%.
# Europe and other low-growth economies European Union growth is projected at 1.2% for 2026, and several of Europe's largest economies sit near the bottom of the G20. Canada and Russia are both forecast at 1.1%. The United Kingdom is at 1.0%, Germany 0.7%, France 0.6%, Japan 0.6%, and Italy 0.5% — the lowest among G20 members listed.
# Why Europe is lagging The context points to a handful of structural and cyclical constraints: elevated energy costs, fragmented capital markets that hinder cross-border expansion, and sizable budget deficits that limit fiscal flexibility. These factors combine to slow business expansion and public investment in many large European economies.
# What's supporting U.S. growth The U.S. forecast of 2.3% places it ahead of other advanced economies in the ranking. A significant contributor is large-scale spending on technology and digital infrastructure. The projections cited note that annual AI infrastructure spending between 2025 and 2032 is expected to approach 4% of U.S. GDP, supporting capital investment even as other sectors face external pressures.
# Implications for the global economy
# Quick reference: Ranked forecasts (selected)
# Bottom line Asia's emerging markets powering the top of the G20 growth ranking for 2026, while many large European economies remain in a low-growth pattern. The U.S. sits between these blocs with above-average growth for an advanced economy, supported by substantial technology and infrastructure investment.
Indonesia is projected to expand by 4.9% in 2026, matching its projected growth rate for 2025. This puts the Southeast Asian economy behind India but significantly ahead of most advanced economies
Singapore leads the 2026 global economic competitiveness ranking, as Asian and European economies dominate the top spots.
This is the nextbigfuture GDP forecast scenario, not an IMF, Anthropic, or consensus forecast. It took the Anthropic economic forecasts for their base case and their bullish case. I then aligned national data for Taiwan and other countries as of this year. I then used OpenAI GPT 6 to build the scenario where AI product
Guyana’s real GDP per capita has surged 1,549% since 1990. See which economies grew fastest, adjusted for inflation and purchasing power.
See which countries are best at science based on PISA 2025 scores, with China and Singapore leading the global ranking.
Electronics manufacturing by country is highly concentrated, with China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan accounting for 80.5%.
Loading more related stories...
Open the app view to save this story, compare related coverage, and continue from the same source.