Five weeks out: NZ election in a dead heat as minor parties hold the balance

The useful part

Charlyse Tansey The election is just weeks away, prompting a sharpening of the political knives and upping of the political low blows. Things could get dirty and desperate, with the latest major poll seeing National and Labour locked in a dead heat, the Greens surging, and the minor parties deciding who governs. For some MPs, the countdown to election night on November 7 is a countdown to the end of their political careers.

How it works

• We've seen the reflection of how society has pulled apart in so many different ways, in the last five years in particular, being reflected now in the polls.
• Espiner says, "The Greens are saying, without filter, this is what we want to do.
• I'd just be really interested, if their polling drops away a little and they're close to that 5 percent threshold, I would be fascinated to watch the language of Chris Hipkins in that last week.
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• Also I'd be watching out for the possibility that Melissa Lee could come through the middle for National because you have some pretty strong candidates on the left." Both Espiner and Watkin say the next...

What to take from it

"Neither has been terribly inspiring or charismatic or capturing attention," Espiner says. Post-war, we've only seen a couple, and they've been Labour's problem. "I think we're seeing that in people going, yeah, you know, main parties, that's so 20th century.

Example or evidence

• You would think that if you are a really astute and observant political observer, you're going, 'Man, the world is changing'.
• Maybe it's starting to bear fruit." Both Watkin and Espiner agree the Opportunity Party will be a "critical element in this election".
• "If they are not there, then there's no path to power for Labour," Espiner says.
• "So they are game changers, deal breakers, whatever you want to call it, this election.

Details worth keeping

'Very, very tight race' puts election on a knife edge. "We haven't seen a one-term National government. Tight is right, but it's also incredibly fractured.

Related coverage

• Helsinkitimes: Sweden's parliamentary election remained on a knife edge late on Sunday, with the opposition holding a projected one-seat majority over Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson 's governing bloc.
• Huffpost: The outcome of the race may not be decided until Wednesday.
• Nytimes: With most of the votes counted on Sunday, it was basically a tie between the center-left and center-right coalitions.
• Japantimes: A partial count by the election authority points to a one-seat majority for the opposition center-left bloc.
• Newsroom: From The Detail: Polls, policies and political pokes - with less than two months to go, the election battle heats up The post <a href="https://newsroom.co.nz/2026/09/10/luxon-and-hipkins-in-a-bit-of...