Oil executives expect WTI near $88 by year-end, below current prices, Dallas Fed survey shows

The useful part

Executives' average year-end WTI forecast of about $88 sits well below spot near $99, which suggests the industry expects some easing, but the $70 to $126 range shows how uncertain the outlook is. The diesel result is the more notable signal for oil markets: if fuel spreads stay wide for more than a year, refining margins are likely to stay strong and freight and transport costs elevated, even if crude eases. The largest share of respondents also does not expect Persian Gulf crude exports to normalise before the second quarter of 2027, which implies a risk premium could persist in crude.

How it works

• This is a sentiment survey of producers and service firms, so prices will still be driven by Middle East headlines, inventories and demand data..
• US oil and gas executives expect diesel to stay costly relative to crude for more than a year and do not see Gulf supply returning to normal quickly, even though they expect crude to ease.
• Respondents flagged geopolitical uncertainty, the Middle East conflict and margin pressure, and two services firms said diesel is eroding margins.