Royston Wild flags JD Wetherspoon, Bellway, and Tesco as shares that face fresh downside risk when they publish trading updates in October, citing weaker consumer demand, rising costs, and a squeeze in mortgage approvals.
Bellway’s housing sales and profits remain vulnerable amid falling mortgage approvals and higher build costs ahead of full-year results on 13 October.
Tesco could disappoint again at its half-year update on 8 October as shopper spending softens and like-for-like sales growth decelerates.
Royston Wild reviewed FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 names due to report in October and singled out three stocks he prefers to avoid: JD Wetherspoon (JDW), Bellway (BWY), and Tesco (TSCO). Each faces distinct near-term pressures that could lead to disappointing trading updates and share-price weakness.
JD Wetherspoon: mounting cost pressure and soft final quarter
Wetherspoon warned on 22 July that its forthcoming full-year results would miss prior profit forecasts. The company blamed slightly weaker sales in the final quarter and rising costs across food, labour, repairs, energy, and business rates. Wild sees these same factors as unlikely to ease ahead of the 2 October trading update, which raises the risk of another negative surprise and follow-on share weakness.
Bellway: housing demand and building cost headwinds
Wild holds shares in some housebuilders but expects Bellway to face short-term pain. Mortgage approvals have fallen to 32-month lows, which reduces the pool of buyers. At the same time, rising build costs have squeezed margins. Bellway cut profit guidance in its 11 August half-year update to £320m (at the lower end of its range), and Wild warns a further downgrade is possible when Bellway reports full-year results on 13 October.
Tesco: slowing like-for-like sales and weaker shopper confidence
Expect elevated downside risk for JD Wetherspoon, Bellway, and Tesco around their October updates. The drivers differ—cost pressures and weaker sales at Wetherspoon, mortgage and build-cost stress at Bellway, and slower like-for-like growth and falling shopper confidence at Tesco—but the common result Wild anticipates is disappointing market updates that could weigh on their share prices.
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