India warns of a 'major food crisis' ahead as El Niño collides with global conflicts

# What happened India's foreign minister, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, warned at an Asia Society event in New York that the world faces a "major food crisis" in the coming months. He tied the risk to three overlapping factors: wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tight and politicised global energy markets, and a super El Niño that is already breaking records.

# Why this matters now

# The concrete supply pressures

• Oil and diesel market shocks: Brent crude climbed sharply this month and was on course for a monthly gain of about 14 percent. Attacks on infrastructure and political decisions over sanctions have tightened supplies. Diesel futures in Europe reached a record around $210 a barrel amid attacks on refineries and export restrictions.

# How El Niño amplifies the risk El Niño is a climate pattern that alters ocean temperatures and global rainfall. This year's event is described as a "super El Niño" and is already breaking records. Forecasts cited in the article suggest it could drive higher land temperatures during the event and significantly increase heat-related impacts, particularly in the Global South, where agricultural systems and food security are more exposed.

# What Jaishankar urged He criticised countries that "play politics" with oil supplies and warned that policy choices have consequences beyond national borders. He said policymakers should consider the broader global implications of their decisions rather than acting solely in narrow national interest.

# Short-term implications to watch

• Fertiliser access and prices: Reduced fertiliser flows could lower planting or yield prospects and raise input costs, translating into higher food prices.
• Energy-cost pass-through: Rising oil and diesel prices increase transport and production costs across food supply chains.
• Regional stress: The combined impact of these shocks will be felt most strongly in the Global South, where the article cites projections of elevated heat-related mortality and higher temperatures linked to the El Niño event.

# Bottom line The warning links specific geopolitical disruptions with a strong El Niño to explain why the coming months may see acute pressure on global food systems. Shortages and higher prices could follow unless supply routes, fertiliser production and energy markets stabilise.