Steelers vs. Browns: Why the Under 38.5 Is the Cleanest Bet for Thursday Night

Pittsburgh comes off a 30-27 win over Cincinnati in which Aaron Rodgers passed for 292 yards and three touchdowns, and the Steelers ran for 138 yards as a team. Jaylen Warren had 127 yards on 17 carries. That performance followed poor offensive marks earlier in the season — Pittsburgh was dead last in EPA per play entering the Cincinnati game — so the spike needs context.

• Offensive inconsistency: Pittsburgh averaged 31.7 points per game against Cincinnati since 2025 but just 20.9 against other opponents. The Steelers scored only 13 points against Cleveland last season. That suggests the Cincinnati outburst may be an outlier.

• Rodgers' limits on short rest: Expect Pittsburgh to lean more on the run than ask a 42-year-old Rodgers to carry the passing game on three days' rest. Rodgers also struggled on deep completions earlier in the season before the Cincinnati game, so repeating two 20-plus yard touchdown throws is unlikely.

• Browns' defensive form: First-year defensive coordinator Mike Rutenberg helped hold Carolina to 4.9 yards per play and recorded three sacks in the Browns' most recent win. That performance shows Cleveland can limit yardage and drive success even when the offense doesn't dominate.

Both teams rank in the bottom five in red-zone touchdown rate overall. Low red-zone touchdown rates increase the chance of settled, low-scoring outcomes because drives often end with field goals or fail on fourth down. Additionally, the Steelers had a strong defensive profile before the Cincinnati game — second in the NFL in defensive EPA per play and first in defensive success rate — and should force conservative play-calling when the opponent crosses into scoring range.

Historical and situational trends that matter

Thursday nights with totals below 40 points have gone Under at a favorable clip since 2005 (32-19-2, Action Network). Deshaun Watson is 8-1 to the Under at home over the last five seasons, and Aaron Rodgers has gone Under in all five career meetings with Cleveland, missing the total by an average of 6.1 points per game. Those trends line up with the matchup's concrete features: weak offense tendencies, disruptive defenses, and short-rest quarterbacking.

With both offenses still tricky to trust and defenses showing the ability to keep drives short, the New York Post pick is Under 38.5 (51.9% on Kalshi). Expect a physical, possession-oriented Thursday-night game decided by four drives and field goals rather than a shootout.