Bitcoin posted its second-best third quarter ever while Ethereum had its best Q3 on record. The rally outpaced stablecoin growth, and a modest recovery in USDT supply now becomes the signal to watch for Q4 continuation.
USDT’s 60-day supply change turned positive at $505 million in late September, the first above zero in over three months.
Q4 momentum will likely depend on sustained stablecoin minting pushing the 30- and 60-day averages above zero.
Bitcoin ran a strong third quarter, marking its second-best Q3 on record. Ethereum posted its strongest Q3 ever. Those gains improved market sentiment heading into the fourth quarter.
Historical precedent weakens the case that Q3 strength guarantees Q4 gains. Bitcoin ended Q4 down in both 2024 and 2025. Ethereum had a red Q4 in 2024 and only a marginally positive Q4 in 2025. In short: a strong Q3 does not automatically translate into a green Q4.
A liquidity indicator gaining attention is Tether (USDT) supply change over rolling windows. RugaResearch reported that USDT's 60-day supply change closed September at +$505 million, the first positive reading in more than three months. On a monthly basis, supply rose roughly $450 million.
That recovery matters because stablecoin supply growth is a common source of fresh buying power into crypto markets. However, the improvement here is small relative to the earlier drain: the 60-day reading bottomed at -$5.7 billion in mid-July, and the 30-day average reached -$5.4 billion at the end of July.
Analysts are watching the zero mark on USDT rolling-change metrics. If USDT minting resumes and 30- and 60-day averages move and stay above zero, that would supply explicit liquidity support for higher prices. If these averages remain negative or only marginally positive, price moves may be more vulnerable to reversals or to macro shocks.
Q3 produced impressive returns for Bitcoin and Ethereum, but Q4 faces a tougher test. The most useful immediate indicator is stablecoin liquidity: real, sustained USDT minting that moves rolling averages past zero would make a stronger case for continued upside. Absent that, the market's recent gains will be more dependent on price momentum and external macro developments.
Strong September gains and renewed institutional demand put Bitcoin in focus as markets look ahead to Q4. Continue reading at DailyCoin.
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