BCG: Quantum Computing Could Cut Billions of Tons of Emissions While Adding a Small Carbon Footprint

# What BCG analyzed Boston Consulting Group modeled how quantum computing could affect greenhouse-gas emissions. The firm estimated the upper-bound climate value of quantum-enabled technologies by identifying plausible applications that change materials, chemistry, batteries and carbon-management processes.

# The headline numbers BCG's chief estimate: if quantum-enabled technologies were fully deployed, they could prevent 3 billion to 7 billion metric tons of CO2-equivalent emissions per year. The midpoint of that range — 5 billion metric tons — is nearly a tenth of current global emissions.

Two timing realities temper that headline. First, commercialization and industrial-scale deployment will take time. BCG assumes commercially viable quantum solutions might emerge around 2035. Second, heavy equipment in industry has long replacement cycles. Under typical cycles, only about 10% to 15% of the potential savings are likely to appear by 2040.

BCG reviewed roughly 50 known quantum applications and identified 16 that could plausibly reduce emissions. It excluded cases where existing technologies can already deliver the same improvements or where additional compute would not resolve the core barrier.

Nine of the retained use cases rely on improved understanding of molecules and materials. Quantum computing can, in principle, simulate electron interactions and other quantum-scale phenomena more accurately than classical approximations. That capability could narrow the set of candidate materials researchers need to test in the lab.

Concrete pathways BCG highlights include:

• Better battery chemistries and materials that increase energy density, lifespan or reduce cost, supporting electric trucking and grid storage for renewables.

• Enhanced carbon-capture materials and processes designed via quantum-enabled molecular modeling.

# Quantum's emissions footprint and why it's smaller than AI's BCG projects quantum computing's own emissions at about 90 million metric tons CO2e in 2040. That equals less than 0.2% of a projected 50 billion metric-ton global total for the same year, and about 7% of BCG's midpoint projection for data-center emissions in 2040.

A few reasons for the relatively small footprint:

• Fewer machines: BCG estimates roughly 230 to 1,400 quantum computers could meet global demand by 2040, including spare capacity and public-sector systems. By contrast, current AI and broader computing workloads run across more than 11,000 data centers.

That said, individual quantum systems may still draw significant electricity. A full-scale machine could use on the order of 1 megawatt — comparable to a small data center. Manufacturing the machines is projected to account for most of quantum's emissions footprint, with operations adding the rest.

# Benefit-to-footprint comparison and caveats BCG compares its modeled 2040 footprint with the midpoint of eventual annual emissions reductions to suggest a roughly 60:1 ratio of long-term benefit to the 2040 operational footprint. The report cautions that this pairing mixes a 2040 footprint with benefits that assume full deployment and should not be read as the expected balance in 2040.

Key uncertainties remain: the timing of commercial breakthroughs, how quickly firms adopt quantum-enabled discoveries into industrial processes, and the scope of problems for which quantum actually delivers a usable advantage.

# Bottom line Quantum computing could enable material and chemistry advances that reduce industrial emissions at large scale, while the technology itself is likely to add a relatively small emissions burden compared with global totals and projected data-center growth. The scale and timing of climate benefits depend heavily on research outcomes and the pace of industrial adoption.