Investinglive iconInvestingliveOct 2, 2026 ~1 min source read

US September non-farm payrolls +29K vs +90K expected

The headline missed badly, the unemployment rate ticked higher and wage growth was much softer than expected. On top of that, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60K, with July now showing a 10K decline in payrolls Fed funds pricing was at a 28% chance of a rate hike ahead of the data and USD/JPY was trading at 157.60.

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Useful takeaways from this story.

The headline missed badly, the unemployment rate ticked higher and wage growth was much softer than expected.

On top of that, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60K, with July now showing a 10K decline in payrolls Fed funds pricing was at a 28% chance of a rate hike ahead of the data and USD/JPY...

In the immediate aftermath of the report, Fed funds is down to 15% with USD/JPY at 157.15, 2s at 4.72% and 10s at 5.17%.

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The useful part

The headline missed badly, the unemployment rate ticked higher and wage growth was much softer than expected. On top of that, the prior two months were revised down by a combined 60K, with July now showing a 10K decline in payrolls Fed funds pricing was at a 28% chance of a rate hike ahead of the data and USD/JPY was trading at 157.60. In the immediate aftermath of the report, Fed funds is down to 15% with USD/JPY at 157.15, 2s at 4.72% and 10s at 5.17%.

Details worth keeping

US 2-year yields were at 4.78% with 10s at 5.23%.

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