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When Inbound Sells Itself
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzSep 15, 2026

When Inbound Sells Itself

Jeanne DeWitt Grosser, COO of Vercel, reports 90% automation of inbound sales development, a support agent handling 93% of cases, a 32x ROI on the sales development agent, & a total annual infrastructure bill in the single-digit thousands. Vercel took its inbound SDR team from 10 to 1.25. The bottleneck is not the mode

What Does Pacing Mean?
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzSep 14, 2026

What Does Pacing Mean?

Amodei asked the industry to pace itself, but nobody defined the word. Five camps answered : interpretability wants time to understand models, labor wants time for workers, the economic camp wants growth to service the debt, the geopolitical camp wants position against China, & the regulatory capture camp wants no new

The Three Waves of AI Consumption
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzSep 7, 2026

The Three Waves of AI Consumption

AI token consumption expands in three waves : chat, a single agent, & a meta-harness orchestrating many agents. Each wave multiplies consumption not through faster generation but through parallelization, & the second wave has already overtaken the first.

The Ads Model for Prompts Vertically Integrates AI
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzSep 3, 2026

The Ads Model for Prompts Vertically Integrates AI

Meta's Muse Spark 1.3 prices inference at two levels : $1.25/$4.25 per million tokens for private data, & $0.10/$0.20 for training consent : a 92% price spread. Michael Mauboussin taught that market prices contain information about underlying expectations. This spread establishes a liquid clearing price of $1.24/m toke

Concrete, Silicon, & Leverage
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzSep 4, 2026

Concrete, Silicon, & Leverage

Hyperscalers & data center operators will issue an estimated $4t in debt over the next five years to finance AI infrastructure. This credit expansion equals 286% of US commercial paper, 143% of global private credit, & 91% of the US municipal bond market, transforming AI infrastructure into a macroeconomic credit cycle

AI Productivity Doesn't Mean What I Thought It Means
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzSep 2, 2026

AI Productivity Doesn't Mean What I Thought It Means

Automating draft scaffolding does not shrink human editing time; it raises the output ceiling. A closed-loop taste flywheel cuts draft churn from 47 to 3 while line-level edits hold steady at a median of 136, shifting effort from structural triage to rhetorical precision. Across five years of writing, the quality floor

The Price of Entry to the Frontier
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzAug 31, 2026

The Price of Entry to the Frontier

The frontier AI market is segmenting from both ends of its supply chain. Rationing programs & export limits decide who may run the strongest models. Downstream, enterprises standardize on one or two named vendors, & products ship with a default model inside.

Previously Unmanufacturable
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzAug 19, 2026

Previously Unmanufacturable

Every software product has its own grammar: Figma has frames and components, Salesforce has accounts, contacts, and opportunities, CAD has tools and constraints. Capability and required expertise rise together, so the most powerful tools are the ones fewest people can operate. AI lets users express intent in English wh

Previously Unmanufacturable
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzAug 19, 2026

Previously Unmanufacturable

Every software product has its own grammar: Figma has frames and components, Salesforce has accounts, contacts, and opportunities, CAD has tools and constraints. Capability and required expertise rise together, so the most powerful tools are the ones fewest people can operate. AI lets users express intent in English wh

NVIDIA's $108b Quarter
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzAug 26, 2026

NVIDIA's $108b Quarter

NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 revenue reached $96b with a $108b Q3 guide, but hyperscale revenue grew only 13% sequentially against 25% for everyone else. To fund the buyers filling that gap, NVIDIA extended payment terms — DSO rose from 45 to 60 days & receivables hit $63b — & built a $581b stack of supply commitments, power guara

NVIDIA's $108b Quarter
Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzAug 26, 2026

NVIDIA's $108b Quarter

NVIDIA's Q2 FY27 revenue reached $96b with a $108b Q3 guide, but hyperscale revenue grew only 13% sequentially against 25% for everyone else. To fund the buyers filling that gap, NVIDIA extended payment terms — DSO rose from 45 to 60 days & receivables hit $63b — & built a $581b stack of supply commitments, power guara

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