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From NYT: “Geopolitical factors and U.S. weaponization of the dollar through financial sanctions are causing central banks and other official investors to attempt to diversify away from dollar assets,” said Eswar Prasad, the former head of the International Monetary Fund’s China division. To see how this fits in with t
As share of total diesel+heating oil+gasoline consumption volume (a somewhat strange measure to me, but probably gets the idea across), from Nate Silver:
Here are several measures of manufacturing employment. ADP suggests continued deterioration, while QCEW (through March) fell as official employment rose. Figure 1: Manufacturing employment from CES (black), implied preliminary benchmark for March (gray square), ADP (brown), and QCEW seasonally adjusted by author (blue)
From the High Road Strategy Center, an annual report: Wisconsin job growth grinds to a halt Wisconsin had 3,042,900 jobs in July 2026, down from the record 3,051,000 jobs reached in November 2024. Since January 2025, the state has actually lost jobs while national job growth has continued, though slowly. Wisconsin’s un
According to AAA, regular gasoline is up 3.8% relative to a week ago, diesel up 4.5%. Figure 1: Regular gasoline (blue, left scale), diesel (red, left scale), jet fuel-kerosene (green, left scale), all $/gal., and spot price Brent oil (black, right scale), $/bbl, all weekly average of daily prices. Source: EIA via FRED
Motio Research‘s measure is down 1.2% relative to May, but flat relative to July. Note that the nominal income is also down 0.3% relative to May. Their household-income momentum index, a recession signal, is down: A description of this index is discussed in this post. According to their rule, we would need another two
That’s EJ Antoni, Chief Economist of Heritage, writing three days ago in the Washington Times: Dr. Antoni is writing about corporate net income after tax. That has definitely soared. Of course, looking at manufacturing profits with inventory valuation adjustments, things look a little differently. Figure 1: Manufacturi
IP flat, below +0.3% m/m Bloomberg consensus, manufacturing -0.3% below +0.3%. Capacity utilization drops. Adding in monthly GDP, early benchmark NFP as well. Figure 1: NFP employment (bold blue), civilian employment with smoothed population controls (bold orange), industrial production (red), personal income excluding
Rise in 10 year rates is mostly showing up in real rates, as proxied by TIPS. Figure 1: Change since 2/27/202 6 in ten year Treasury constant maturity yield (blue), on the run yield as of 2:30pm CT (light blue +), TIPS (red), all in %. Source: Treasury, and authors calculations.
As of September 11. The ratio of diesel price to Brent has risen generally since the war began.
Data through yesterday: Figure 1: Regular gasoline (blue, left scale), diesel (red, left scale), jet fuel-kerosene (green, left scale), all $/gal., and spot price Brent oil (black, right scale), $/bbl, all weekly average of daily prices. Source: EIA via FRED. Weekly prices up 3.7% and 3.9%, respectively.
Implications from the Atlanta Fed Taylor Rule utility default settings: Red x denotes 3.88%, orange line Trump’s 1% prescription. Readings for targets are 5.32% to 6.54%, vs. 3.88% actual today.
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