Bitcoin Up 22%: Has The Halving Cycle Begun?

Useful takeaways from this story.

Bitcoin peaked a year ago, hitting an all-time high of $126,210 in October 2025, and has since fallen more than 50%, bottoming near $58,000 two months ago.

The question is whether that marks the start of a leg higher or it's a dead cat bounce within a bear market.

The optimistic bullish case rests on deleveraging and the Treasury's actions to manage yields.

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The useful part

Bitcoin peaked a year ago, hitting an all-time high of $126,210 in October 2025, and has since fallen more than 50%, bottoming near $58,000 two months ago. The question is whether that marks the start of a leg higher or it's a dead cat bounce within a bear market. The optimistic bullish case rests on deleveraging and the Treasury's actions to manage yields.

How it works

Assuming it follows the four-year cycle pattern of the past, Bitcoin might be starting to rise into the April 2028 projected halving with a peak projected in early 2029.
Many crypto pundits believe that leverage used by Bitcoin investors last summer was massive.
While it pushed Bitcoin's price up substantially, it also left the price vulnerable to deleveraging.
These pundits believe leverage has since normalized, which might ease pressure on Bitcoin.
Second, the recent Treasury buyback announcements lead some to question the dollar and US Treasury bonds as safe havens.

What to take from it

One strong week doesn't undo a year-long drawdown, and Bitcoin's history is full of head-fake rallies. Thus, alternative currencies like gold and Bitcoin may be gaining value for some.

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