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For those worried about the impact of deficits and inflation on US bond yields, it's worth taking a trip around the world to get a better picture. Global bond yields for many of the world's ten largest economies are behaving similarly. Across the Globe, the US, Germany, Japan, France, Italy, and Brazil- seven of the te
The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. That was during the final months of the dot-com bubble. At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at its low
Because Warsh doesn't believe in forward guidance, Friday's Jackson Hole speech may be the last window investors get into his thinking before the September 16 FOMC meeting. Accordingly, it's worth spending more time on his speech to see if Wall Streets verdict agrees with our hawkish take in Monday's Commentary- Warsh
Traditionally, the annual Jackson Hole Symposium is where the Fed Chair signals which economic forces are shaping the Fed's thinking for the coming year. With a few members pushing for rate hikes and inflation making others anxious, the market is taking his speech as more of an indication of what the Fed may or may not
While the AI bears focus on concentration and circular financing, the last tech overbuild was financed with debt, and this one is being paid for in cash. Before I discuss why I disagree with the "AI bears," I want to state that I respect their opinions, have evaluated their concerns, and have simply derived a different
"Math of Loss" is chapter 3 of a 5-part series examining the narratives around "investing for the long run." Chapter 1: Think Like An Investor Chapter 2: Investor Psychology The first two articles in this series were about behavior. How to think like an investor instead of a speculator, and how to keep your own wiring
CoreWeave, which rents GPU computing capacity to AI labs and hyperscalers, sits at the heart of a circular financing story that worries some investors. CoreWeave's total debt sits at $35 billion as of June 30, up sharply from $21 billion at year-end 2025. Further, interest expense hit $640 million last quarter, account
After 15 years of guiding Apple to become the largest US company by market cap, Tim Cook stepped down as Apple's CEO effective September 1. In his place, John Ternus, the company's hardware engineering chief since 2021, will become Apple's eighth CEO. The move was announced in April, but with the CEO turnover in Septem
рџ”Ћ At a Glance Druckenmiller Warning: The Bond Market Already Priced It Market Brief & Technical Review From Lance's Desk: Democratic Socialism: A Beautiful Cake With A Bitter Aftertaste - RIA Market stats, screens, and risk indicators рџЏ›пёЏ Market Brief - A Bond Scare If you look at the market headline, the bulls
Nvidia reported record fiscal second-quarter results Wednesday with revenue more than doubling year over year to $96 billion. After initially falling on the news, the stock rose over 8% overnight. During the earnings call with analysts, CFO Colette Kress guided Nvidia's fiscal 2028 revenue to roughly 70% growth. The fo
Bitcoin peaked a year ago, hitting an all-time high of $126,210 in October 2025, and has since fallen more than 50%, bottoming near $58,000 two months ago. The tide may be turning; over the last week, Bitcoin rose by over 20%, marking its sharpest bounce during this year-long drawdown. The question is whether that mark
Famed investor Stanley Druckenmiller published a Wall Street Journal opinion piece ( Let The Bond Market Speak ) on Monday, in which he warns Treasury Secretary Bessent about long-dated bond buybacks . His core thesis seems to rest on the paradox between Warsh's strong belief in the information value of free markets an
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