Realinvestmentadvice iconRealinvestmentadviceSep 2, 2026 ~1 min source read

Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?

Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at its lowest level in at least three decades, possibly its cheapest reading ever.

Market Valuation: Expensive CAPE Or Cheap PEG?

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Useful takeaways from this story.

Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once.

At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at its lowest level in at least three decades, possibly its cheapest reading...

Is the past a better predictor of the future than the wisdom of Wall Street?

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The useful part

Since 1881, the market valuation has been more expensive under CAPE only once. At the same time the CAPE is ringing warning bells, the PEG ratio, which measures price relative to expected earnings growth, is at its lowest level in at least three decades, possibly its cheapest reading ever. Is the past a better predictor of the future than the wisdom of Wall Street?

How it works

  • To answer our question, we'll first summarize what each ratio measures, then dig into expected growth versus historical growth, the culprit behind the big difference in the two graphs.

What to take from it

That was during the final months of the dot-com bubble.

Details worth keeping

The S&P 500's Shiller CAPE ratio just hit 41. One market valuation says run for cover while another says bargain.

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