What happened
Last week the United States announced an oil agreement with Venezuela that effectively gives U.S. control of a large portion of the country's reserves. The deal covers about 65 billion barrels, a majority stake in Venezuelan oil assets according to the reporting.
Why opposition leaders are uneasy
Opposition politicians in Venezuela face a political bind. They criticize the interim government led by acting president Delcy Rodríguez as illegitimate because she was a close ally of Nicolás Maduro and supported actions that the opposition says included stealing the 2024 election and imprisoning political opponents. Despite those concerns, many opposition figures have stopped short of openly opposing the U.S. deal.
María Corina Machado, the main opposition leader and a presidential hopeful, has voiced deep worries about negotiations conducted by the interim government. She says economic recovery requires democratic institutions and an elected government, but she has been careful not to directly denounce the oil agreement, reflecting a desire to retain good relations with the Trump administration.
How U.S. politics factor in
David Smilde, a scholar cited in the reporting, summarizes the calculation: opposition figures seeking power know that openly opposing the agreement could close off political opportunities under the current U.S. posture.
Domestic response and political consequences
Despite principled objections to Rodríguez's legitimacy, nearly all opposition lawmakers in the National Assembly voted to approve the oil agreement. Some framed the move as a necessary economic opening that could bring investment and a path to recovery.
Critics point to concrete domestic indicators that complicate Rodríguez's standing. After a pair of earthquakes in June that killed more than 6,500 people, a survey by AtlasIntel put her approval at roughly 22 percent. Venezuelan economist Ricardo Hausmann told CNN the deal is "a great deal for her," arguing it helps Rodríguez stay in power by trading oil access for political support.
Stakes and immediate implications
- For the opposition: The agreement forces a choice between public denunciation of a government many view as authoritarian and preserving access to U.S. political and economic backing.
- For the interim government: The deal provides the appearance of international legitimacy and foreign investment without immediate democratic concessions.
- For the U.S.: The pact secures access to a large share of Venezuelan oil and establishes a working relationship with Rodríguez's administration, at least in the short term.
Bottom line