A concise summary of Steven L. Taylor’s argument that recent diplomatic and defense policies are combining in ways that could weaken alliances, empower rivals, and increase the chance of broader conflict.
Economic policies and tariff uncertainty are disrupting global markets and could erode the trade-based foundations of post‑WWII peace.
Military choices show a shift toward traditional power projection while underinvesting in trends like drone warfare and enduring ordnance stockpiles.
Together these moves create openings for China and Russia to expand influence and raise the probability of greater international instability.
Steven L. Taylor lays out a compact list of foreign policy and defense actions he believes, in combination, increase global risk. He treats these items as ingredients in a stew — each one troubling by itself, but together liable to change the architecture of international order.
The most immediate thread is alienating traditional allies. Taylor highlights actions that damage ties with NATO, moves that undercut US cooperation with South Korea (including criticism of joint war games and redeployment of assets), and a trade confrontation with Canada despite deep economic and cultural ties. Eroding those partnerships reduces collective deterrence and the credibility of U.S. commitments.
Economic measures are a third concern. Recurrent tariff policies and threats of broad sanctions create market uncertainty and risk destabilizing the neoliberal trading order that has supported relative peace since World War II. Taylor calls out specific disruptions — for example, impacts on diesel and fertilizer tied to actions around the Strait of Hormuz — and warns that new sanctions regimes against countries like Iran would require economic warfare that implicates other nations.
On military posture, Taylor argues the United States is showing mixed signals. There are displays of force and ordnance use in places such as Iran, but also signs of weakness: expending easily replaceable munitions, redeploying assets, and undermining leadership through ideologically driven personnel changes. He warns adversaries are watching and drawing conclusions about US capabilities.
Technology and tactics are another gap. Taylor points out that Ukraine and Iran have highlighted the value of drone warfare and other modern modalities, yet weapons procurement emphasizes large, expensive platforms with long production cycles. That mismatch could leave the US unprepared for the types of conflict likely to appear in the near term.
His bottom-line caution: these discrete policy moves could combine to remove the US-led alliance framework that helped keep global competition muted after World War II. With alliances weakened, markets unsettled, military signals muddled, and rivals positioned to take advantage, the international system risks shifting toward greater conflict and rivalry.
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