AfD landslide in Saxony-Anhalt shakes Chancellor Merz and tests Germany’s firewall against the far right

# What happened

Germany (AfD) surged to first place in the Saxony-Anhalt state election. It won roughly 44% of the vote in exit polls and secured 39 of 83 seats in the state legislature. That left the party short of an absolute majority but in a strong position to try to build a governing majority.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his Christian Democratic Union (CDU) immediately ruled out formal cooperation with AfD. Merz said the result had shaken his party "to its very foundations" and described it as the CDU's worst election result in decades. He rejected calls to change course on foreign policy, reaffirming continued support for Ukraine and NATO unity.

# Why this matters

The outcome challenges a long-standing practice among Germany's mainstream parties of refusing to work with AfD — a policy commonly called the "firewall." AfD leaders urged CDU lawmakers to enable a centre-right governing majority in Saxony-Anhalt by crossing party lines. If individual lawmakers defect, a far-right party would hold state-level power in postwar Germany for the first time.

The result raises political and diplomatic concerns. Neighbouring countries expressed alarm, and Merz warned that AfD's positions — including ending support for Ukraine and restoring ties with Moscow — threaten the values underpinning what he described as the West. The AfD dismisses classification by domestic intelligence as right-wing extremist as an insult.

# Who might partner with AfD

Only the populist left-wing BSW has indicated readiness to work with AfD. The BSW shares some policy stances with AfD, including opposition to mass immigration and calls to end support for Ukraine while restoring economic ties with Russia. Both parties critique sanctions on Russia as harmful to German businesses and the export-driven economy.

# Voter profile and campaign themes

AfD performed particularly well among men and among voters who are less economically secure and less educated. Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany's poorer eastern states, and some AfD voters express nostalgia for life under former East German rule.

Campaign themes that resonated included promises of tougher measures on immigration and crime, national pride, and an emphasis on "peace in Europe" as a voter concern. Public broadcaster ARD found peace in Europe to be one of the biggest factors influencing voters.

# What leaders said

Merz called the result a shock but said he would stay with his reform agenda and would not change his commitment to defend freedom and support Ukraine. AfD co-leaders portrayed the result as a milestone and set a target of at least 40% in the next national election. The AfD also sought to recruit CDU lawmakers to form a governing coalition.

# Near-term consequences to watch

• Pressure on CDU internal unity and leadership as other state elections approach.
• Potential attempts by AfD to win defecting lawmakers to achieve a working majority in Saxony-Anhalt.
• Diplomatic and security discussions about Germany's posture toward Ukraine and relations with Russia.

# Bottom line

AfD's strong showing in Saxony-Anhalt has created both a political and constitutional stress test for Germany's mainstream parties. The immediate balance of power in the state legislature prevents an outright AfD majority, but the party's push to recruit individual conservatives challenges the established norm of cordon sanitaire against it and could reshape regional governance if defections occur.