Study: Buying Now Beats Waiting in Most Historical Scenarios

# What the study looked at

# Inputs and assumptions The analysis used several concrete inputs: the Zillow Home Value Index for average home prices, the annual average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, median household income, an assumed 15% down payment, and the extra savings a buyer might accumulate during a two-year delay.

# The headline result In 61% of analyzed scenarios, buying immediately led to a lower total cost than waiting two years. That means historically, more often than not, immediate buyers came out ahead when accounting for purchase price, financing costs, and potential savings during a waiting period.

# Where the advantage was strongest The buy-now advantage was larger in some high-growth states. AD Mortgage found buying immediately was favorable in 74% of scenarios for both California and Florida. The study ties that result to substantial long-term home price growth in those states over the period examined.

# When waiting paid off There were clear exceptions tied to severe market disruption. From 2007 to 2010 — the financial crisis period — delaying was the better move in 100% of scenarios the study analyzed. The study's broader point: market conditions change over time, and there are periods when waiting materially improves outcomes.

# Why lower rates aren't the whole story The analysis shows that falling mortgage rates do not automatically mean waiting will be cheaper. Home-price movements can offset or outweigh the benefit of lower rates. For example, the study noted that in 84% of state scenarios comparing 2013 buyers (who bought immediately) with those who waited until 2015, the immediate buyers were better off even though average rates edged down during that window.

# Practical takeaway for prospective buyers The study suggests buyers should weigh their current financial position and readiness alongside broad market forecasts. If you can comfortably afford the purchase now and your local market is experiencing price growth, historical patterns suggest buying immediately has been the better financial move more often than not. But in periods of severe price declines or economic stress, waiting has been beneficial historically.

# How to use this information Treat the study as a historical benchmark, not a direct prediction. Use the same factors AD Mortgage used: local price trends, current mortgage rates, your down-payment capacity, expected savings over a waiting period, and household income stability. Compare scenarios for your specific market rather than relying on national averages.

# Bottom line Across two decades of real-world data and every state, buying now beat waiting by the numbers in a majority of scenarios. That pattern shifts when the economy or home prices suffer a sharp downturn, so the right decision depends on both market context and a buyer's personal finances.