Three scenarios lay out path to 45–50 million international visitors to Vietnam by 2030

# What the plan sets out On September 10 the ministry issued Decision 2338, a structured tourism development plan with three scenarios intended to guide policy and industry action through 2030. The plan ties tourism growth to a broader national goal: supporting GDP expansion of roughly 10% in 2026 while keeping macroeconomic stability.

# 2026 milestones The plan divides work by time horizon. The immediate objective for the remainder of 2026 is: 25–27 million international arrivals and 150–153 million domestic visits. Revenue targets are stated in local currency to contribute to the national GDP growth target of about 10%.

# The 2027–2030 objective: 45–50 million international visitors The plan aligns with a national political resolution that sets tourism to directly contribute 10–12% of GDP by 2030 and aims to keep Vietnam among the leading ASEAN countries by scale and growth rate.

It sets targets for the period 2027–2030:

• International visitors: aspirational range 45–50 million by 2030 (high scenario).
• Domestic visits: around 160 million in the high-case target period.
• Total tourism revenue: targeted at 80–90 billion USD by 2030.

To reach these numbers the plan offers three growth scenarios for international arrivals across 2027–2030:

• Low: 8–10% annual growth, reaching ~35–38 million international arrivals by 2030, with domestic visits around 155 million.
• Medium: 12–15% annual growth, reaching ~40–45 million international arrivals by 2030, with domestic visits ~158 million.
• High: 15–18% annual growth, reaching 45–50 million international arrivals by 2030, and serving about 160 million domestic visits.

# Market focus and operational levers The plan identifies target source markets and operational levers without prescribing detailed programs in the public summary. It highlights the importance of expanding or restoring key inbound markets: China, South Korea, India, and Russia. The high scenario explicitly depends on stronger recovery and intensified efforts to attract these markets.

# Risks and dependencies The plan's outcomes depend on external and domestic factors:

• Geopolitical disruptions, particularly the referenced Middle East tensions, can reduce travel demand and reroute flows.
• Air connectivity interruptions will directly constrain international visitor numbers.
• Sustained high oil prices can raise travel costs and depress both outbound and domestic travel demand.

These risks are the basis for the plan's low-case projections.

# What it implies for industry and policy makers Meeting the high scenario will require coordinated action across government and private sectors: restoring and expanding air routes, targeted market promotion (especially high-spending, long-stay segments), and managing costs and service capacity for domestic tourism. The medium scenario suggests steady, managed growth with fewer external shocks. The low scenario indicates the need for contingency measures to sustain demand and protect tourism-related employment and revenue if adverse conditions persist.

# Short conclusion The decision codifies a measurable, scenario-based approach: clear short-term 2026 targets, graduated 2027–2030 scenarios, and an overall aim of turning tourism into a major contributor to GDP by 2030. Actual outcomes will hinge on market recoveries in a few large source countries and on external political and economic conditions.