Tomtunguz iconTomtunguzSep 23, 2026

The Most Important Market in AI is the Middle

Anthropic held the Opus line at $5 & $25 across five releases while OpenAI cut Luna 80% then 50% again, & open models now run a majority of token volume at an 86% discount to closed models. The most capable model, Fable 5.1, commanded only 3.7% of gateway spending in its first twelve days.

The Most Important Market in AI is the Middle

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Anthropic held the Opus line at $5 & $25 across five releases while OpenAI cut Luna 80% then 50% again, & open models now run a majority of token volume at an 86% discount to closed models.

The most capable model, Fable 5.1, commanded only 3.7% of gateway spending in its first twelve days.

Demand is a normal distribution with a fat middle, & as intelligence per dollar explodes the tokens may shift to commodity.

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The useful part

Anthropic held the Opus line at $5 & $25 across five releases while OpenAI cut Luna 80% then 50% again, & open models now run a majority of token volume at an 86% discount to closed models. The most capable model, Fable 5.1, commanded only 3.7% of gateway spending in its first twelve days. Demand is a normal distribution with a fat middle, & as intelligence per dollar explodes the tokens may shift to commodity.

Details worth keeping

AI prices are collapsing, but the competition is not at the frontier. Whether that happens will determine the economics of the AI market.

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