Russian refinery outages, export restrictions and Middle East disruptions have cut available diesel barrels and pushed U.S. Gulf Coast diesel benchmarks to multi-year highs, shifting flows and widening arbitrage opportunities.
U.S.-Iran tensions and tanker attacks have pushed U.S. Gulf Coast Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel benchmarks to record levels.
Buyers are turning to U.S. exports to fill gaps, creating larger price differences across regions that traders can exploit.
Market indicators show elevated prices, tighter inventories and trade flows increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk.
Register for an account your email your username A password will be e-mailed to you. Diesel Price Spike Weekly Graphic Open as PDF (click to enlarge) Diesel prices have surged to their highest levels in years as geopolitical shocks tighten global supply. Russian refinery outages and export restrictions – triggered by Ukraine's drone strikes – have sharply reduced available barrels, while U.S.-Iran tensions and tanker attacks have pushed U.S.
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Gulf Coast Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel benchmarks to record highs. Latest Posts A Possible Escalation by Iran FREE Analysis George Friedman.
The pace of increases has accelerated in September — gaining more than 87 cents so far this month — with prices rising almost every day and surging beyond the peak set in 2022.
Data through yesterday: Figure 1: Regular gasoline (blue, left scale), diesel (red, left scale), jet fuel-kerosene (green, left scale), all $/gal., and spot price Brent oil (black, right scale), $/bbl, all weekly average of daily prices. Source: EIA via FRED. Weekly prices up 3.7% and 3.9%, respectively.
According to AAA, regular gasoline is up 3.8% relative to a week ago, diesel up 4.5%. Figure 1: Regular gasoline (blue, left scale), diesel (red, left scale), jet fuel-kerosene (green, left scale), all $/gal., and spot price Brent oil (black, right scale), $/bbl, all weekly average of daily prices. Source: EIA via FRED
From the EIA: The last plotted Brent price (August 25) is below $90. November NYMEX futures is over $95 as of 7pm CT:
President Trump recently blamed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries for causing a spike in diesel prices, but analysts say the Iran war is probably a bigger factor.
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