Finder survey: most experts expect an RBA hike to 4.60%, nearly half forecast 4.85% by year end

# What the Finder survey found Finder's monthly RBA Cash Rate Survey polled 41 economists and specialists about the likely path of the Reserve Bank of Australia's cash rate and the implications for households. The panel's views show strong near-term conviction that the RBA will move again, and a divided sense of how effective additional hikes will be against current inflation pressures.

Consensus forecast for the next meeting

Most panellists (90%, 37 of 41) expect the RBA to raise the cash rate to 4.60% at the next meeting. Almost half of respondents (48%, 19 of 40) expect at least one further hike before 2027, with November mentioned most often.

Why experts expect hikes

Thirty-three of 41 panelists pointed to persistent or "sticky" inflation as the main reason for another rate rise. Panel members framing the issue include:

• Richard Whitten (Finder): said the recent reprieve is over and borrowers who already face high rates should contact lenders or consider switching loans.
• Dr Shane Oliver (AMP): described the RBA's credibility as at stake because underlying inflation remains above target after extended periods.
• Michael Yardney (Metropole): cited stubborn underlying inflation and a tight labour market as reasons the Board may raise rates.

Financial impact on borrowers

Finder calculated effects for the average mortgage. Using an average loan size of $736,259:

• A rise to 4.60% would cost the average borrower about $427 extra per month (roughly $5,124 per year) compared with January 2026.
• If the panel's near-half prediction of two hikes materialises, homeowners could be paying about $542 more per month at the start of 2027 than they did a year earlier.

Debate over effectiveness and fairness

The panel is split on whether rate hikes are losing their effectiveness. Among respondents answering that question, 47% said no, 34% said yes, and 19% were neutral. Many who back a hike still doubt it will fully tame inflation driven by global supply and cost pressures.

Several panellists highlighted distributional concerns: interest-rate increases place a disproportionate burden on mortgage holders and younger, indebted households. Comments included:

• Noel Whittaker (QUT): expects a hike but doubts it will address global drivers of inflation.
• Peter Boehm (Pathfinder Consulting): said the RBA is balancing employment and inflation mandates and that raising rates risks higher unemployment or recession.
• Mala Raghavan (University of Tasmania): argued monetary policy affects interest-sensitive sectors faster (goods inflation) while services inflation—driven by labour-intensive, non-tradable components—responds more slowly.

What this means short term

If the RBA follows the panel majority and moves to 4.60%, mortgage repayments will rise noticeably for the average borrower. The panel's split on further effectiveness suggests uncertainty about how many more hikes will follow and how those hikes will interact with supply-driven inflation and labour market dynamics.