Mastercard forecast sees holiday sales rising fastest since 2022, with online up 11% and in-store growth resurging

# What the forecast says

Online sales form the largest part of that growth. MEI projects online holiday spending to rise 11% compared with last year. That aligns with broader shifts toward e-commerce during peak shopping periods.

In-store sales are also expected to improve: MEI forecasts a 3.6% increase for brick-and-mortar transactions, which the release calls the strongest performance for physical retail in four years and the best since 2022.

# Calendar and timing effects

Two calendar details could influence where and when sales happen. Thanksgiving falls late again this year, which compresses the holiday shopping window between Thanksgiving and Christmas. That compression can encourage retailers to begin promotions earlier in November or even in October to capture buyer attention.

Cyber Monday is positioned in November this season, concentrating online promotional activity and traffic into a single long weekend. MEI notes that makes November especially important for retailers who rely on digital promotions and fulfillment capacity.

# What this means for retailers

• Inventory and fulfillment: With online spending forecast to jump 11%, retailers should expect heavier pressure on e-commerce fulfillment, returns handling, and shipping capacity during the November long weekend and the weeks that follow.
• Promotion timing: A compressed window between Thanksgiving and Christmas increases the value of early promotions and segmented offers. Retailers that front-load marketing to capture early demand may reduce reliance on last-minute holiday traffic.
• Physical-store opportunity: The projected 3.6% in-store growth, the strongest since 2022, suggests there will still be meaningful foot traffic. Retailers should plan staff schedules and in-store experiences that convert visits into purchases.

# Context and data source

# Quick practical takeaways

• Expect a holiday season where online demand outpaces in-store growth, but physical retail shows its strongest four-year result.
• Prepare for an intense November for e-commerce because Cyber Monday falls within that month and Thanksgiving shortens the overall shopping window.
• Consider earlier promotions, tighter inventory plans, and scaled fulfillment resources to manage concentrated online traffic.

# Bottom line

MEI forecasts a healthier holiday season for retailers than in recent years, driven by a double-digit rise in online sales and the best in-store growth since 2022. Calendar timing — a late Thanksgiving and a November Cyber Monday — will shape where and when most holiday purchases occur.