Bain forecast: US holiday retail sales to top $1 trillion for first time as online buying accelerates

# What the forecast says Bain & Company's annual U.S. retail holiday forecast projects holiday retail sales will exceed $1 trillion for the first time. The firm expects overall retail sales during the November–December shopping season to grow 4.5% year over year.

Non-store sales (online) are the fastest-growing channel: Bain projects non-store sales will increase 9.9% compared with the prior year. Despite that acceleration, in-store purchases will still account for roughly 70% of holiday season spending.

# Where growth is concentrated The strongest category growth in the holiday period is expected in clothing and accessories and in health and personal care products. Those categories are singled out as likely contributors to the uplift in both online and offline channels.

# What Bain warns retailers about Aaron Cheris, a partner and global head of Bain's retail practice, says retailers should temper enthusiasm with realism. He points to factors that will squeeze margins and advises retailers to:

• Balance price and promotions to protect margins while staying competitive.
• Invest in newer capabilities to improve customer experience and move ahead of competitors.

The forecast notes that while reaching a trillion dollars is notable, retailers face operational and margin challenges that will influence how much of the increased sales translate to profit.

# How this compares to other projections Related industry reports show different headline numbers. For example, Deloitte's forecast cited in related coverage projects a larger holiday retail figure (reported as around $1.7 trillion for a November–January timeframe). Those differences reflect varying definitions of the holiday period and what counts as holiday-related retail spending.

# Practical implications for retailers Retailers should plan for higher online traffic and continued strong in-store demand. Concrete actions to consider:

• Allocate inventory and staffing to support peak in-store volumes while scaling fulfillment for a near-10% rise in online orders.
• Target marketing and promotions toward clothing and accessories and health/personal care, which Bain expects to outperform other categories.
• Revisit pricing and promotion strategies to avoid eroding margins during the busiest selling weeks.

# Practical implications for shoppers Shoppers can expect robust holiday promotions and a wide variety of online offers, particularly in clothing and health/personal care. The balance between in-store and online activity means both channels will run aggressive merchandising and promotional programs.

# Bottom line Bain's forecast signals a milestone in U.S. holiday retail spending, driven by solid year-over-year growth and faster online expansion. However, the gain in topline sales coincides with pressures that could compress retailer margins, so execution on pricing, promotions, and customer experience will determine how much of the holiday upside converts into profit.