Realinvestmentadvice iconRealinvestmentadviceSep 30, 2026 ~1 min source read

Higher Yields Flipped The Math In The Investors’ Favor

Maybe, maybe not, but for bond investors, the risk-reward math is becoming very enticing even if yields rise further. The graphic below, courtesy of F/m Invest, shows that at today's yields, the skew of potential one-year returns for one-, two-, and three-percent up- and down-changes in yields favors a positive outcome in many instances.

Higher Yields Flipped The Math In The Investors’ Favor

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Maybe, maybe not, but for bond investors, the risk-reward math is becoming very enticing even if yields rise further.

The graphic below, courtesy of F/m Invest, shows that at today's yields, the skew of potential one-year returns for one-, two-, and three-percent up- and down-changes in yields favors a positive outcome in...

The two-year note holder is well insured against losses, even if rates climb by more than three percent.

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The useful part

Maybe, maybe not, but for bond investors, the risk-reward math is becoming very enticing even if yields rise further. The graphic below, courtesy of F/m Invest, shows that at today's yields, the skew of potential one-year returns for one-, two-, and three-percent up- and down-changes in yields favors a positive outcome in many instances. The two-year note holder is well insured against losses, even if rates climb by more than three percent.

Details worth keeping

Will 5.00% be the approximate ceiling for Treasury yields? The price change equals the bond's duration times the change in yield. The same 1.00% move lower in yields returns 8.69%.

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