U.S. Forces Leave Iraq, Raising Immediate Questions About Security and Influence

# Summary

U.S. troops have left Iraq after more than two decades of military involvement. The withdrawal closed a long chapter that began with the 2003 invasion to remove Saddam Hussein, continued through the 2011 pullout, and resumed when U.S. forces returned to help fight the Islamic State. Iraqis marked the withdrawal with celebrations, while security officials and local leaders expressed concern about whether Iraq's institutions are prepared to manage security on their own.

# What happened and how we got here

# Who stands to gain

Iran and Iran-aligned militias. Baghdad is the only regional government maintaining close ties with both Tehran and Washington, but analysts say Iraq has become a secondary battlefield in the Iran war. Pro-Iranian groups in Iraq have carried out strikes that targeted U.S. forces and regional infrastructure.

State. Local memory of the group's 2014 gains—and of Fallujah's history as a flashpoint—drives concern that organized extremist groups could exploit gaps in security at the local level.

# Iraqi readiness and local sentiment

Officials worry Iraq's security institutions may lack a viable Plan B for the post-coalition phase. Retired Iraqi Army Gen. Mohammed al-Jubouri asked whether Iraqi institutions have prepared for the transition. Sunni tribal leaders in cities like Fallujah said they do not believe Iraq is fully ready to take over security responsibilities now. Those concerns reflect the city's past as the first major city seized by the Islamic State after a previous U.S. withdrawal.

# Recent clashes and casualties

U.S. forces in recent months conducted operations against pro-Iranian paramilitaries in Iraq. The Iran war has claimed at least 18 U.S. service members' lives since it began, seven of them in Iraq. Paramilitary strikes, drone attacks, and cross-border incidents have kept the security environment volatile.

# Changes inside the U.S. military

# Near-term risks and watch points

• Expansion of influence by Iran-backed militias in regions formerly secured by U.S. forces.
• Local security breakdowns in cities with fragile governance like Fallujah that could enable insurgent returns.
• Continued attacks tied to the Iran war and cross-border operations.

Observers, Iraqi leaders, and security officials will be watching whether Iraq offers concrete plans and resources to cover areas vacated by coalition forces and how neighboring actors respond to the new reality.