Oilandgas360 iconOilandgas360Sep 30, 2026 ~2 min source read

Dallas Fed survey: US oil and gas output rose in Q3 2026 while price volatility clouds producer plans

Production in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico increased in Q3, but a seven-month war in Iran and closed shipping routes have driven wide swings in crude prices and left companies uncertain about the rest of 2026 and 2027.

US oil and gas production rises in Q3 2026 but price uncertainty plagues producers, Dallas Fed survey says

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Oil and gas production rose in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico in Q3 2026, according to a Dallas Fed survey.

Survey respondents on average expect WTI of $88/bbl at year-end 2026 (range $70–$126) and Henry Hub natural gas of $3.29/MMBtu.

Survey collected Sept. 16–24 with 125 firms (83 exploration & production, 42 oilfield services), and industry comments cite the Iran war as the main driver of volatility.

The useful part

US oil and gas production rises in Q3 2026 but price uncertainty plagues producers, Dallas Fed survey says. On average, respondents expect a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of $88 a barrel in a wide range of $70 to $126, and a Henry Hub natural gas price of $3.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at year-end 2026. "It sure would be nice to have a less volatile market," another respondent said.

How it works

  • "We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and also 2027 will potentially look like," an Exploration and...
  • Data were collected September 16–24, and 125 energy firms responded.
  • Of the respondents, 83 were exploration and production firms, and 42 were oilfield services firms.

Details worth keeping

(BOE Report) – Oil and gas production in the key producing states of Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico rose in the third quarter of 2026, the Dallas Fed said in a survey on Wednesday, but the now seven-month old Iran war continues to rock energy markets and inject uncertainty into producers' plans. The rise in production comes as US oil prices touch $100 a barrel as the war in Iran spills out across the Middle East and disrupts global supplies, hindering some production in the region as well as keeping key shipping routes largely shut and forcing global importers to compete for a smaller pool of barrels. (Reporting by Georgina McCartney in Houston) Share:

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