North American Rail Traffic Climbs; Intermodal Sets Records but Drayage Capacity Erodes

# What happened

# The numbers you need

• North American rail traffic rose 3.5% in week 38. Intermodal led with a 5.3% gain and carloads were up 1.5% year over year. In the U.S. specifically, intermodal rose 6.3% and carloads climbed 3%, producing a domestic gain of 4.8%.
• Chemicals and petroleum shipments jumped 7.7% overall, split as a 7.2% rise in chemicals and a 9.4% increase in petroleum and petroleum products. Metallic ores and metals increased 9.5%.

# Why it matters to shippers and carriers

However, intermodal performance depends on the full door-to-door chain. Drayage capacity is shrinking even as rail volumes rise, which creates a real operational bottleneck at terminals and ramps. Firms such as JB Hunt have flagged that their ability to grow intermodal volumes is constrained by how much drayage capacity they can secure.

# The drayage problem in plain terms

• Registered drayage drivers capable of moving 53-foot containers peaked at 531,000 in 2022. That pool fell to 483,000 by the end of last year and to 467,000 as of July. That's roughly a 63,000-driver decline over about two years.
• A shrinking drayage workforce limits how many containers can be moved in and out of rail ramps, which can blunt the benefits of record intermodal service and capacity.

If drayage availability tightens further while intermodal demand rises, shippers may face delays, higher drayage costs, or reversion of marginal freight back to truck when service economics shift.

# Commodity outlook and quirks to watch Chemicals, petroleum and metals posted clear rebounds, suggesting industrial activity is supporting increased rail-car demand beyond seasonal patterns. Motor vehicle volumes remain the notable soft spot, but that reflects a challenging year-over-year comparison rather than a sudden drop in underlying vehicle sales.

Railroads historically hold intermodal share while fuel prices remain elevated and truck capacity is tight. When diesel falls and truck capacity loosens, marginal freight tends to migrate back to truckload.

# Other items of note

# Bottom line Railroads are moving more freight, with intermodal hitting record domestic levels and several industrial commodities rebounding. The immediate operational risk is an eroding drayage driver pool that could cap intermodal growth unless drayage capacity recovers or networks adapt to the constraint.