A Super El Niño Is Brewing — How It Could Affect U.S. Housing This Winter

The useful part

AI Summary A powerful El Niño brewing in the Pacific could reshape housing market conditions across the U.S. "We see El Niño events every two or three to seven years, so it's not unprecedented that we see these," Botts said. "But with sea level temperatures at record elevations, all the predictions are for a super El Niño event.

How it works

• Insurance as the canary in the coal mine For Botts, insurance markets offer an early warning signal.
• "Those factors aren't specifically addressed during the valuation process at a subject property level but do show up in aggregated data outside of the development of the appraisal itself," he said.
• "We've been working through Miami and RWorld and Florida Realtors to speak with elected officials and work towards the insurance side.
• "You see, insurance rates going up or insurance becoming difficult to get is kind of an early indicator of at least what the risk market is concerned about for homes." Cotality also watches transaction...
• "The actions of buyers and sellers, or the market reaction, is what appraisers analyze in determining value." Asked whether buyers are already discounting properties with higher climate or insurance risk,...

What to take from it

We may remain really hyper focused on the West Coast, particularly California, because historically, El Niños shift the wind pattern south. "But we'll see more severe convective storms — probably more tornado activity." The Pacific Northwest, by contrast, will probably be drier, raising wildfire risk by late spring and summer. As buyers become better informed, Romano said, they may be less inclined to purchase in affected areas.

Example or evidence

• "Building codes were changed after Hurricane Andrew and the homes have been stronger," he said.
• "That means we have the jet stream flowing over the southern part of the U.S.
• He lives in the Pacific Palisades, below the Palisades wildfire burn scar, where storm preparations have become routine.
• "What I see happening all around me is, literally several times a week, before the storm events they have around here, people taking about preparation for mud flows," he said.

Details worth keeping

Agents should assess individual property risks and promote preparation. Coastal flooding is another concern, especially with two recent Pacific hurricanes accelerating coastal erosion in Orange County and Los Angeles County. "So, sea level is higher up the coast at the moment, maybe as much as six inches or more," he said.

Related coverage

• Cbsnews: A new forecast predicts with almost 100% certainty that El Niño will remain in place until early 2027, peaking later this year.
• Khon2: El Niño doesn't just impact the weather. There are five lesser-known impacts of El Niño we're likely to see with this year's super-charged event.
• Insurancebusinessmag: US and UN forecasters now say this could be the strongest El Niño since records began in 1950. It's arriving into a UK property market that just posted its worst-ever claims year
• Ktla: El Niño doesn't just impact the weather. There are five lesser-known impacts of El Niño we're likely to see with this year's super-charged event.
• Choosethepricegroup: Ask a couple people how the housing market is doing and you'll probably get a couple different answers. That's because right now, the market runs on 2 very different tracks, split by price point.