Bureau of Meteorology says current El Niño may be strongest on record; researchers find climate change raised odds

Niño has warmed faster than any event in the reliable record and could become the strongest on record. Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific were likely 2.2–2.3°C above average in August. Forecasts suggest the anomaly could peak above 3°C, compared with the previous highest observed value of 2.6°C in January 1983.

Independent signals are already emerging in the region. The bureau and other agencies report drought in parts of Papua New Guinea, food and water shortages, and major wildfires in Indonesia. Australia has had its third-warmest winter on record, with New South Wales, Tasmania and Victoria experiencing their warmest winters on record.

Pacific event was continuing to strengthen and would probably persist into early 2027. The UN secretary-general said the developing El Niño is "being supersized before our eyes" and warned it could deliver a "massive blow to communities and economies across the world."

BoM's long-range outlook for September to November shows an increased chance of below-average rainfall for the south and east of Australia, with above-average rainfall more likely across much of the western half of the continent. Temperatures are forecast to be above average in areas south of the tropics.

What this means in practical terms: more frequent or intense heatwaves in southern and eastern Australia, a higher probability of drought conditions where rainfall is reduced, and elevated bushfire risk when hot, dry conditions persist. Regional food and water security pressures are already reported in parts of the Pacific.

The research cited has been submitted for peer review and uses a methodology common to other studies that attribute changes in extreme climate events to greenhouse gas emissions. The BoM continues to monitor sea surface temperatures and model projections as the event develops through spring and into summer.

Authorities, emergency services and communities in affected regions should expect an extended period of heightened climate risk and plan accordingly for heat, reduced water availability, and fire danger.