Yields Up (Again), Yield Curve Steepening

# What happened Yields on U.S. Treasuries have risen again, and the yield curve has steepened. The post shows two figures: one measuring the change since February 27 in 10-year nominal Treasury yields and 10-year TIPS, and one plotting Treasury yields across maturities. The author notes that yields have risen all along the spectrum since the start of the US–Iran war.

# What the charts show

• Figure 1 compares the change since February 27 in the 10-year nominal Treasury (blue) and 10-year TIPS (red). Both series register increases over that window.
• Figure 2 presents Treasury yields across maturities, illustrating that the upward move is visible at multiple points along the curve.

These visuals signal two concurrent developments: higher nominal yields and higher real yields (as reflected in TIPS), which together point to rising required returns for both inflation-protected and nominal debt.

# Why this matters Rising yields across the curve change borrowing costs, valuation metrics, and portfolio allocations. A steepening curve—where long rates rise relative to short rates—affects:

• Government borrowing costs across maturities.
• Mortgage and corporate borrowing costs that reference longer-term rates.
• Fixed-income portfolio decisions, since steeper curves change expected returns for different durations.

When both nominal yields and TIPS move up, that indicates markets are pricing higher real returns as well as higher nominal compensation, which can reflect a combination of greater risk premia, growth expectations, and shifts in inflation expectations.

# Context noted in the dataset The author ties the timing of the yield rise to the start of the US–Iran war. The dataset explicitly states yields have risen since the start of that conflict and uses Treasury data as the source for the plotted series.

# Immediate implications for readers

• If you're evaluating borrowing timing, higher long-term yields raise the cost of fixed-rate financing tied to those maturities.
• For inflation-sensitive positions, the concurrent rise in 10-year TIPS suggests markets are also demanding higher real yields, which changes the relative attractiveness of inflation protection versus nominal exposure.

# What to watch next

• Further moves in nominal Treasuries and TIPS to see whether real yields continue to rise or reverse.
• Short-term rates relative to long-term rates to monitor whether steepening persists or the curve flattens.
• Geopolitical developments linked to the US–Iran conflict, which are cited as a timing correlate for the yield moves.

# Bottom line